Texas voters didn’t just settle a bruising Senate runoff Tuesday. They delivered new clues about what kind of Republican politics wins in Texas, how much sway President Donald Trump holds over the GOP and whether months of vicious campaigning will continue through the fall election.
Here are six major takeaways from Tuesday’s runoff:
1. Confrontational politics wins
The GOP Senate runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton became a contest between two competing styles: Cornyn’s more institutional, establishment conservatism versus Paxton’s confrontational brand of politics. Republican voters ultimately sided with the more combative approach, and Paxton has vowed to work alongside President Donald Trump in advancing a MAGA agenda.
2. Trump’s sway remains powerful
Paxton’s victory is fresh evidence that Trump’s grip on the Texas GOP remains strong, even against a longtime senator backed by former Gov. Rick Perry and former Sen. Phil Gramm. But Trump entered late, after many Texans already had voted, and Paxton’s commanding margin suggested he could have won without the endorsement. Even so, Paxton called Trump’s backing “the most powerful force in politics.”
3. Big night for MAGA
The MAGA movement scored major victories in Texas. Not only did Paxton defeat Cornyn, but state Sen. Mayes Middleton also defeated U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the GOP attorney general runoff. Former Tarrant County GOP Chairman Bo French ousted Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright, who was backed by Gov. Greg Abbott. For years, insurgent Republicans have battled more traditional conservatives for control of the party. This election cycle may have marked the clearest victory yet for the GOP’s hard-right flank.
4. The Texas GOP’s geographic split
The runoff again exposed the growing divide within Republican Texas. Cornyn needed overwhelming support in suburban and metro counties to counter Paxton’s strength in smaller and rural conservative counties. But unlike the primary, Paxton remained competitive in supposed Cornyn strongholds, including Tarrant County, long a GOP bellwether.
5. Buckle up for more attacks
The runoff became one of the nastiest and most expensive Senate primaries in American history, packed with attacks over ethics scandals, infidelity, loyalty to Trump and personal character. Tuesday’s outcome is unlikely to cool the warfare. With Paxton now facing Democrat James Talarico, Texas appears headed for another costly and relentless barrage before the November election.
6. Talarico makes a play for non-Democrats
If Democrats want to win in Texas, they will have to expand their electoral coalition. Talarico already has begun appealing to independents and Republicans uneasy with Paxton, framing the race as “The People vs. Ken Paxton” and portraying the Republican nominee as the embodiment of “a broken, corrupt system.” The way “to fix it is clear: working people coming together across partisan divides,” Talarico said.