California’s economy remains No. 4 on the global stage – barely!
My trusty spreadsheet once again looked into a vanity scorecard that compares the state’s gross domestic product, a broad measure of business output, with the International Monetary Fund’s tracking of GDP by nation. This is the hook for Californians who brag that the state has the world’s fourth-largest economy.
California’s economy ran at a $4.4 trillion annual rate for the first quarter. That GDP pace would barely keep it at No. 4, based on the IMF’s April forecasts of global economic performance for the year.
The world’s top three economies have stable rankings: No. 1 U.S. ($32 trillion in GDP for 2026), followed by China ($21 trillion) and Germany ($5.5 trillion).
Then it gets tight.
California starts 2026 a smidge ahead of Japan’s $4.38 trillion, followed by the United Kingdom’s $4.26 trillion and India’s $4.15 trillion.
Just $250 billion of business output – or roughly a 6% gap – separates California and these three nations.
The BEA reports state GDP figures quarterly, and the IMF’s next world forecast is in October. Stay tuned!
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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